South Africa is on the road to great change.
Exactly what that change will look like, and whether it will alleviate the many difficulties facing South Africans, remains the million-dollar question.
The African National Congress (ANC) has governed with a sizeable electoral majority since South Africa adopted democracy in 1994, but in last week's election the party won only about 40% of the vote. The poor result means the party is now in talks with rivals in the hope of becoming a partner in forming a government.
“In their desperate moment, I don’t know what choice they will make,” said Bhekindlela Cebekhulu, 40, a theatre actor in Soweto.
Will South Africa soon have a white president? Or will a socialist party take over his house? Cebekhulu asked. He said he voted for the ANC after waiting in line for more than an hour. He said what worried him most was former President Jacob Zuma's threat to change the constitution.
The country's top legislative body, the National Assembly, must convene and elect a president within two weeks of the official announcement of the election results on Sunday.
African National Congress officials say they want their leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa, to run for a second term. Ramaphosa's fate could depend on the negotiations.
South Africa seems to face two paths.
The election results could prompt the ANC, and whoever enters national government, to more aggressively tackle the poverty, unemployment, crime and inequality that plague the country — or it could lose more support. Or political polarization and bickering could deepen, meaning little action to address problems.
Hlengiwe Ndlovu, a lecturer in governance at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, said the new government should at least be “moving in the right direction”. But she added that if there was political failure the country could “drift into chaos, violence and collapse”.
Here are the key leaders who will determine South Africa's future and the impact they are likely to have.
Cyril Ramaphosa and the African National Congress
The big question for Ramaphosa, 71, and his party is which arrangement they prefer. All of them carry risks.
They could work with the Democratic Alliance, which has been adamantly opposed to policies that give blacks preferential treatment in jobs and ownership. But that could isolate some of their core supporters in black towns and rural communities.
Another option is for the ANC to reunite with Zuma, who once led the party but helped form a new one and run against his former ally in this election. But bringing back Zuma, Ramaphosa's former deputy and a bitter rival of the ANC, could undermine the ANC's position that it is rooting out years of corruption. Forced to resign in 2018 Because the corruption allegations are shocking.
The party can also turn to another former member, Julius Malema, who was a radical youth leader before joining the party. Expelled He. A decade ago, Mr Malema founded the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters. While Mr Malema's socialist stance is embraced by some members of the ANC, it could push the party in a direction it does not want to go.
There is a possibility of governing directly as a minority government. This would mean the ANC would negotiate with the other parties one by one. Some have also suggested forming a “national unity government” with all the parties in parliament joining.
Party secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said on Sunday that all options were open. But he said the party would not be forced into a bad deal: “We are negotiating, but we are not begging.”
John Steenhuizen and the Democratic Alliance
The DA has been one of the ANC's harshest critics, personally insulting its members and taking it to court over some of the laws it has passed.
Under Mr. Steenhuizen, a 48-year-old white man, the Republican Party abandoned its more diverse leadership after losing support among white conservative voters. The party moved closer to some issues supported by the far right — issuing a press release lamenting, without evidence, that “increase rapidly” farmers' killings, and advocated for the continued use of the Afrikaans language at Stellenbosch University.
Still, in some ways, it makes sense for the DA to form an alliance with the ANC. The party received nearly 22% of the vote, making it the second-largest party. The ANC's current leadership generally advocates a similar neutral economic approach to the DA. Big business is likely to welcome the alliance. Analysts say the partnership could protect and strengthen state institutions. Analysts say the DA has a good record in governance in the Western Cape, the fourth-largest province, and could act as a check on government graft.
The parties are likely to clash over policies to eliminate racial disparities inherited from apartheid, as well as foreign policy. The Democratic Alliance is a staunch supporter of Western allies. The African National Congress stresses the importance of the West but also advocates strong partnerships with countries such as China, Russia and Iran.
Tony Leon, a former DA leader who was part of the DA's coalition-leading negotiating team, said his party's voters would overcome their reservations about the ANC if they believed a more functional government would be formed. They also wanted Zuma and Malema's parties out of power because of their left-wing economic policies.
“I can absolutely guarantee that 80 per cent or more of DA voters will say 'make some reasonable arrangement with the ANC',” he said.
Such an agreement would likely mean compromises on policies vital to the ANC. One of the DA's first priorities is to stop “cadre deployment,” or placing party members in key posts even if they lack the qualifications. The DA also pledged to abolish affirmative action “because it only enriches a tiny, well-connected elite,” according to its manifesto.
Jacob Zuma and MK
Zuma's six-month-old People's Light (MK) party was the most surprising spoiler in the election. It came in third, winning nearly 15% of the national vote, a record for a first-time party.
MK believes in a strict political platform: expropriate all land without compensation and place it under state control; abolish the current constitution; create a chamber in parliament for leaders of traditional peoples; and postpone the transition to renewable energy in favor of coal and nuclear power.
But many analysts say Zuma, 82, appears less interested in policy and more interested in punishing Ramaphosa and his party. Loss of Membership because Criminal conviction for failing to testify before a corruption inquiry – a charge he claims was politically motivated by the Ramaphosa government.
Some political analysts and rival politicians say Zuma also wants to use state power to escape some legal troubles. He faces criminal corruption charges stemming from an arms deal when he was deputy president two decades ago.
Umkhonto We Srei officials have demanded Ramaphosa resign as a condition for forming a coalition, but the ANC has so far rejected the demand.
Analysts say the biggest fear is that if the two parties join forces it would essentially be a return to the factionalism and corruption that have prevented the ANC from effectively running the government.
Ibrahim Fakir, an election analyst at the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa, said voters “want elections to work better, they want better performance from current policies.”
Julius Malema and the Economic Freedom Fighters
Malema’s rhetoric has softened in some areas, but his demands have not diminished. Last week, he outlined his demands on coalition partners: expropriation of land without compensation within six months; creation of a national bank and cancellation of student debt within 12 months; free water and electricity for all welfare recipients; and partners who “will not become puppets or agents of the Western imperialist agenda.”
But the 43-year-old leader has lost some influence as the party has performed disappointingly in opinion polls, with support falling by about a percentage point to about 9.5% compared with the last election in 2019.
Still, as a former ANC member, he has allies within the organization, and his style of politics appeals to a faction within the party that believes the current leadership is not taking aggressive enough steps to close the economic disparities plaguing black South Africans.
Fakir said investors might initially be alarmed by a partnership between the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters because of Malema’s left-wing stance, but those concerns are overblown. Fakir said such an alliance would not bring about the more drastic changes Malema seeks.
Instead, he said there might be a “strengthening of the existing welfare state.” He said the parties might negotiate something like the Reconstruction and Development Program, a public spending plan passed at the end of apartheid that Fakir called a “slightly more radical Marshall Plan.”
