Western leaders this week begin an extraordinary series of summits that could give them a chance to show solidarity with adversaries who increasingly see the West as something to be scorned, ignored or even repudiated.
Yet when they gather on the tsunami-like cliffs of Normandy on Thursday to mark the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings, and five weeks later in Washington for a NATO summit, the leaders will be tested on a host of divisive issues: Ukraine War and Gaza, China's rising up And perhaps most worrying of all is America’s future.
In some ways, D-Day and NATO were inspiring milestones: first, a nostalgic commemoration of the Allied victory over Nazi tyranny; second, the 75th anniversary of NATO’s birth after World War II. In between, Switzerland hosted a peace conference on Ukraine and Italy hosted a summit of G7 leaders.
Yet beneath the pride and pageantry, there are lingering doubts, especially about the direction of American politics. President Biden will visit France and Italy (he is expected to skip the Swiss forum), but he is finding time for diplomacy amid his election-year battle with former President Donald J. Trump. A victory for Trump in November would call into question the very survival of the alliances that Western leaders have spent so much time celebrating.
Trump’s shadow is inevitable in these events. These summits are marked by his Convicted last week of falsifying business records And the sentence against him, Scheduled for July 11This is the last day of NATO meetings in Washington, which will allow European leaders to witness firsthand the political dysfunction in the United States even as Biden works to unite European leaders against the threat from Russia.
“It’s a fractured landscape,” said Charles A. Kupchan, a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University. “We are going through an era of rejuvenation and renewal of the Western alliance, and these summits will reflect that.”
“But while everyone is worrying about the next US election, we are celebrating,” said Professor Kupchan, who was in charge of European affairs during the Obama administration. “For the first time since World War II, the West faces more internal threats than external ones.”
The West’s anxiety is not limited to concerns about the United States. Fears of a resurgent populism are spreading across Europe—starting in Italy, where Right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia MeloniThe G7 will host France and Germany, whose leaders are facing growing discontent and formidable challenges from the right. Expected to perform strongly in European electionsThe commemorations, which begin on Thursday, are likely to cause discord amid tributes to the heroes of the Normandy Landings.
“The Europeans have come to see this series of criminal cases as helping Trump, not hindering him,” said Kim Darroch, who served as Britain’s ambassador to the United States during the Trump administration. “This will be part of every conversation among delegations at all these summits.”
“Europe has doubts not only about the rule of law, but also about the maturity of the American electorate, some of which seem to be extremely gullible and susceptible to the seduction of Trump’s populism,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, Germany’s former ambassador to Washington.
For Ischinger, who chairs the Munich Security Conference until 2022, Trump’s verdict will be an untimely distraction from a NATO gathering that could have “provided a unique opportunity to restore faith in our shared vision of freedom, to show resolve rather than hesitation, courage rather than fear.”
Biden took a decisive step in that direction last week by allowing Ukraine to conduct limited military strikes inside Russia using American weapons, a decision that could galvanize other Western countries, some of which were already leaning toward doing so, and iron out differences between Washington and European capitals.
But fearing escalating tensions with nuclear-armed rival Russia, Biden will severely limit the use of U.S. weapons, and where the line is will remain a source of debate within the Western alliance.
Diplomats say Biden will also need to do a better job of persuading Europeans to take on more of the burden of defending Ukraine. After long delays, $61 billion aid package delivered to KievIt underscored the extent to which Ukraine, and Europe’s security, still depends on the United States.
Peter Westmacott, a former British ambassador to the United States, France and Turkey, said: “Europeans must understand that if they do not do more, the United States could significantly withdraw from NATO, especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House in January next year.”
“At some point, there may be negotiations to end the conflict,” Mr. Westmacott said. “My concern is that if Ukraine’s backers don’t do more soon, the negotiations could turn into a capitulation — which would only encourage Putin to take further risks.”
Russia was not invited to the Swiss peace conference, which led other major powers such as China to refuse to attend. Biden's absence would also reduce potential achievements, although the White House has said it will send a delegation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Putin would stand and applaud if Biden did not attend.
Zelenskiy’s frustration with Washington highlights the key role the U.S. plays in the network of alliances. Solidifying those ties has been a priority for the Biden administration, and analysts say the summits will showcase the progress it has made, not only in Europe but also in Asia, where Japan and South Korea have also moved closer to the United States.
Biden's staunch support for Israel in the Gaza war has caused divisions between the United States and some European countries. Ireland, Norway and Spain recently recognized the State of Palestine. But Britain, France and Germany have so far avoided breaking with the United States despite domestic political tensions in these countries and growing dissatisfaction with Israel's war actions.
Some experts say that despite Biden's many diplomatic efforts, his emphasis on alliances lays the seeds for future problems. This makes allies overly dependent on the United States, so Trump's shadow will hang over the meetings in France, Switzerland, Italy and the United States.
“The heart of the Biden strategy is alliances and allies; they're very proud of that,” said Jeremy Shapiro, director of studies at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “Trump basically viewed allies as relatives who come to your house, lend you money, use your swimming pool.”
“But the Biden administration has made the problem worse,” Shapiro said, “because they, under Trump, made the world so dependent on the United States, and the world should no longer be dependent on the United States.”
