If Edmonton held an election right now, the city's incumbent mayor would have a hard time winning re-election, according to new poll results.
Pollster Leger An online survey of 401 people living in Edmonton was conducted last month, asking them about the direction of the city, issues that are important to them and the mayor. Amarjit Sohi Is performing his duties.
The results are not optimistic.
When asked how they felt about Edmonton's current state, only 22 per cent of respondents said the city was heading in the right direction, while 67 per cent said it was on the wrong track, with the rest not knowing or not answering.
“More than two-thirds say the city is heading in the wrong direction. That's not a good sentiment if you're theoretically in control,” said Andrew Enns, Leger's executive vice-president for central Canada. He said several factors may be contributing to residents feeling that way.
“I suspect it's a combination of factors. We ask people what their concerns are, and the issues that come up, like housing affordability, property taxes, public safety, the economy, homelessness — those can be tough issues,” Enns said.
Leger said Edmontonians who voted for Sohi were more likely to think Edmonton was heading in the right direction. People over the age of 55 were more likely to think Edmonton was going the wrong way.
When asked what the most important issue facing Edmonton right now is and what respondents think the mayor and council should be focusing on, housing prices and affordability topped the list.
More than one in five Edmontonians (21 per cent) said this was their top concern. The next most important issues were property taxes (14 per cent), homelessness (13 per cent), the economy (11 per cent) and crime/public safety/policing (10 per cent).
“The current environment may be challenging, but I would say that what the mayor and council have done so far on these important issues has not really gone as far as residents want in terms of addressing some of the challenges that Edmonton residents perceive,” Enns said.
The poll also asked residents how they thought the mayor would handle matters identified as important.
Edmontonians rated Sohi best for alternative transportation (43 per cent), the state of its infrastructure (39 per cent) and ethical, honest government (39 per cent).
Leger said the areas where they believe the mayor performed worst include property taxes (16 percent) and housing prices/affordability (16 percent).
Enns noted that some issues are beyond the city's control, such as housing affordability, and that the free market and the economy play a major role.
“It's fair to say that this is a difficult issue for the mayor and the city council and it's definitely not something they can resolve alone,” he said.
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Still, property taxes are under the city’s control, and Ledger said big increases in recent years — in April, city council approved an 8.9 per cent increase in property taxes for 2024 alone — have irked Edmontonians. The city has also proposed raising taxes by seven per cent in 2025 and 6.4 per cent in 2026.
“Property taxes are the second-biggest issue for voters. This tax increase could be a contributing factor to that and could also spark some negative sentiment toward the mayor,” Enns said.
“I think at this stage they haven't got a clear picture of whether this money is being spent on the issues they think Edmonton really needs to address.”
Tim Cartmell, the ward's councillor, said the poll results are consistent with what he's hearing from his southwest Edmonton constituents.
“People expect a clean, well-managed, well-functioning city, and they don’t see that, and it frustrates them,” Cartmell said, adding that he feels the same way.
“Everybody's taxes are going up a lot, but it looks like the services they're paying for are going down or not changing at all. So it's frustrating. Absolutely.”
Sohi's approval rating plummets
If municipal elections were held tomorrow, would you vote for Mayor Amarjeet Sohi or someone else? This was the question asked by the poll respondents.
Sohee won the 2021 municipal election with 45 per cent of the vote, but today, only 16 per cent of Edmontonians say they are likely to vote for the current mayor, while more than two in five (43 per cent) say they would vote for someone else. Many are undecided — 32 per cent say they don’t know who they will vote for.
Leger said men and Edmontonians over 35 are more likely to vote for someone other than Sohi. His biggest supporters are those aged 18 to 34.
Political analyst and commentator John Brennan was not surprised by the poll results.
“What’s interesting is, if you talk to friends and family, if you listen to talk radio — and I listen to radio because I’m a news junkie — if you look at the letters to the editor: there’s no doubt that Edmontonians are not happy with the current mayor and the current council,” Brennan said.
People may blame the mayor for their discontent, but Brennan said it’s important to remember that the City Council is a collective decision-making body.
Cartmel said he voted to pass the budget reluctantly, but believes significant changes to the city's spending plans are needed going forward. He would like to see the city's budget process completely rebuilt.
Cartmell believes there's a disconnect between what city council and some city officials prioritize and what Edmontonians need from their city on a daily basis.
“You can't go to town hall and represent the needs of your constituents if you don't know their needs, if you don't know their perspectives, if you don't know their problems. So this poll is another way to communicate.”
The city councillor said the poll results should serve as a warning.
“I think if people plan to stay in government after the next election, there needs to be a real effort to regain the trust of voters and constituents. I am here to take on that challenge. I hope the same is true for some of my colleagues,” he said.
The current parliament was elected in 2021, and Brennan said the majority of the parliament leans to the left politically, which he believes is not a good sign during difficult economic times.
“I really don’t think they’ve taken their responsibilities seriously in terms of finances, taxes and spending.”
Brennan said that's a problem for mayors and council members running for reelection, noting it could depend on who decides to run against him and where they fall on the political spectrum.
“The last time was in October 2021, the Little C conservative, center-right vote was split between Mike Nickell, Kim Krushel and Michael Oshri — because if you added up the votes of those three, that was more than Amarjit Sohi got,” he said. “In 2021, all the center-left progressive voters supported Amarjit Sohi, and the conservative voters in Edmonton, that vote was split between three candidates.”
With the next election 17 months away, Sohee has not yet indicated whether he intends to run again, but Brennan expects he will.
“He's going to have a tough road ahead of him, especially if a strong candidate like Tim Cartmel comes forward to run against Amarjit Sohi. I think that's the case.”
Legg said it was difficult to predict whether the results of today's polls would be reflected in the next municipal election in October 2025 because voter turnout has historically been low.
“Often you get a lot of people who participate in surveys and indicate their preferences, but they don't actually show up to vote. So that can be a little tricky,” Enns said.
Still, if the trend continues, Sohi could face a tough challenge if he seeks re-election.
“If the current mayor continues to have the same approval ratings as he has, it’s going to be a very challenging election,” Enns said. “My guess is they’re already thinking hard about what they can do this year and in the coming months to change things.”
Sohi did not grant an interview Tuesday but instead issued a statement.
“I chose to run for mayor at a time when Edmonton was facing economic and social pressures from a devastating pandemic, resulting in inflation and an affordability crisis. Council also had to deal with years of underinvestment in core services Edmontonians rely on, while also grappling with funding cuts and burdens on other government departments.
City Council needs to make tough decisions to meet these challenges head on. This includes a difficult decision to raise property taxes to make up for underinvestment in the Edmonton Police Service, public transit, snow removal, affordable housing, crisis diversion programs and many other core services.
“I know tax increases are difficult for many people, and I deeply appreciate the sacrifices that the people of Edmonton have made.
“We are starting to see positive results from these investments on the issues that matter most to Edmontonians. I know there is still work to do, and I also know that not everyone is seeing the results of our investments.
“I will continue to work hard to ensure all Edmontonians benefit from the services they have invested in,” Sohee said.
The Leger poll was conducted from May 22 to May 25. The online survey sampled 401 Edmonton respondents aged 18 and older. Leger said the margin of error for the Edmonton sample is within ±4.9% (19 out of 20 times). Leger said the results were weighted by age, gender, region and education to ensure the sample was representative of the Edmonton population.
