Mexicans will hold an election on Sunday that will be groundbreaking in several ways: It will be the largest in the country’s history, one of the most violent in recent years, and will likely see a woman serve as president for the first time ever.
Both main contenders are women, and according to opinion polls, they largely divide the electorate. The frontrunner is climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum, who represents the ruling party and its allies. Her closest rival is businesswoman Xochitl Gálvez, whose running mate includes a group of opposition parties.
Ms. Sheinbaum Leading by double digits in the polls The opposition has argued for months that the figures underestimate their candidates’ true support. Galvez said in an interview that “this is an anti-establishment vote” and that if Mexicans turn out in large numbers on Sunday, “we will win.”
“She thinks she’s ahead by 30 points,” Ms. Galvez said of her opponent. “But she’s about to have the surprise of her life.”
The race showcases the huge strides that women have made in Mexican politics in recent years, even though they were not allowed to vote in the country until 1953. Both candidates have extensive experience; Ms. Galvez is a former senator and Ms. Sheinbaum has run the capital, one of the largest cities in the Western Hemisphere.
“For the first time in the 200 years of our republic, a woman has been able to hold the highest honor bestowed by the people: the presidency of Mexico,” Ms. Sheinbaum said in a recent speech.
Much of the campaign, however, has focused on a figure who is not on the ballot but has enormous influence: the powerful incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
López Obrador has been a major figure in Mexican politics for decades, having contested the first three presidential elections, ultimately winning in a landslide in 2018.
Despite his popularity, López Obrador has a polarizing image, adored by die-hard fans and vilified by critics. His government has doubled the minimum wage and used cash transfer programs to lift millions out of poverty, while empowering the military and taking measures that many warn will weaken democracy.
His dominance has upended established politics, prompting three parties — right, center and left — to form an uneasy coalition that is now backing Ms. Galvez.
Ms. Sheinbaum appealed to voters largely by promising to carry on Mr. López Obrador’s legacy. Ms. Galvez has positioned herself as an alternative for voters unhappy with Mr. López Obrador’s leadership and has vowed to reverse many of his policies.
“The results of this election demonstrate the influence that López Obrador has on Mexican politics. He is central to defining political identity and political positions,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexican political analyst.
Whoever succeeds Mr. López Obrador will face a daunting challenge.
Drug cartel violence continues to plague Mexico, causing mass displacement and sparking one of the deadliest election cycles in recent memory. López Obrador has directed his government to focus on addressing the drivers of violence rather than waging war on criminal cartels, a strategy he has called “hugs instead of bullets.”
Ms. Galvez harshly criticized the practice.
“Enough of the criminals' hugs, enough of the bullets “The people of our country are suffering a great loss,” she quipped during her campaign. She also said she would withdraw the armed forces from civilian activities and instruct them to focus on fighting organized crime while strengthening the police.
Ms. Sheinbaum said she would continue to focus on the social causes of violence but would also work to reduce the rate of impunity and strengthen the National Guard.
On the economic front, the opportunities are clear: Mexico is now the United States’ largest trading partner, thanks to a recent shift in manufacturing from China, and its currency is so strong it’s called the “super peso.”
But there are some problems. The federal deficit This year it has soared to around 6%.And the state oil company Pemex is heavily in debt, straining public finances.
“The fiscal risks we are facing now are of a magnitude not seen in decades,” said Mariana Campos, director of México Evalúa, a public policy research institute.
Another challenge is the wide-ranging new responsibilities given to the armed forces, which have been tasked with managing ports and airports, operating airlines and building railways through the Mayan jungle. “There is no militarization” country, while suggesting that she was willing Reassessing the military’s involvement In public enterprises.
In addition to these pressing domestic challenges, the fate of the next president will be closely tied to the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. A second term for President Biden would provide continuity, but a return to the White House for Donald J. Trump might be less predictable.
Mr. Trump's plan A massive roundup of illegal immigrants and their deportation could affect millions of Mexicans living in the U.S. He has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese cars made in Mexico.
Then there is the issue of fentanyl, which the U.S. government says drug cartels produce in Mexico using chemicals imported from China. Trump has suggested military action to combat the fentanyl trade.
Dealing with such pressure from Washington, even in the form of inflammatory campaign rhetoric, could be a challenge for Mexico’s next president.
Sheinbaum said Mexico would have a “good relationship” with either Trump or Biden, who is elected president, and her campaign said it would continue efforts to curb the flow of migrants.
Ms. Galvez said she was also willing to work with the two men.
Asked how she would deal with Trump, she said: “I'm used to dealing with toxic masculinity.”
“Trump, in my opinion, is essentially a pragmatic guy,” she said, adding: “He wants to solve the border and the fentanyl problem, and I think we can do that.”
Emiliano Rodríguez Mega contributed reporting from Mexico City.
