Canadians planning a road trip this summer may find some relief at the pump, but energy market volatility and weather disruptions could pose a threat Gasoline prices Domestic experts pointed out.
The national average price for regular unleaded gasoline on Wednesday was $1.60 a litre, according to the fuel price tracking website GasBuddy.com and GasWizard.ca.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said Canada's average monthly gasoline prices have been trending down since April but remain relatively high. He said that could deter some Canadians from taking long-distance trips this summer.
DeHaan said gasoline prices typically fall in the summer as refinery maintenance wraps up and summer gasoline becomes available. He said the extra gasoline supply is usually a factor in lower gasoline prices each year, which is what we are experiencing now.
“As we get into the summer and we get towards Canada Day, I think we're going to see another five to 10 cents drop in gas prices across the country in the coming weeks,” DeHaan told Global News on Wednesday.
If all goes well, DeHaan predicts that the average gas price in Canada could drop below $1.50 a litre by July 1.
However, he said there could be “surprises” in July and August from hurricanes that could threaten operations at major U.S. refineries, with consequences for costs.
Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy and a former Liberal MP, said energy prices are roughly the same as they were in 2023 compared to last year, despite the carbon price increase that took effect April 1.
McTeague is less optimistic about the continued decline in Canadian gasoline prices this summer.
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“I think we should expect the unexpected,” he told Global News, adding, “Gas prices have dropped significantly.”
Mr McTeague said the price drop could actually boost demand, causing prices to “rapidly recover”.
Volatility in energy markets, tensions in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine are also factors that could put upward pressure on gasoline prices, he said.
Meanwhile, prices for diesel, which is in ample supply at this time of year, are also falling.
“We are seeing diesel prices at their lowest levels since July last year,” DeHaan said.
“In fact, in the coming weeks, diesel prices are likely to fall to their lowest levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
Inflation affects travel plans
Concerns about the cost of living are affecting many Canadians' travel plans this summer.
Ipsos recently conducted an exclusive poll for Global News The survey shows that due to the impact of inflation, most people (67%) have reduced their summer vacation plans, an increase of 5 percentage points from last year.
Some 64% of respondents also said economic uncertainty had impacted their vacation plans, with three-fifths saying they prioritized other savings over vacation time.
As other modes of transportation become more expensive, gas prices at the pump are getting lower and lower.
this The International Air Transport Association warned on Monday that Airfares are likely to continue to rise as the industry faces high jet fuel costs, the fallout from the pandemic and pressure to decarbonize the world.
However, DeHaan said he expects more Canadians and Americans to choose to fly rather than drive for vacation this summer.
“Road travel has become more expensive — not just because average gas prices remain relatively high, but because the cost of getting around, staying in hotels, dining out has increased, which is costing Canadians more,” he said.
up to date Inflation data from Statistics Canada Canadians spent 7.9 per cent more on gasoline in April from the previous month, Statistics Canada data showed, driven by higher global oil prices, a switch to more expensive summer blends at gas stations and a hike in the federal carbon tax.
— With files from Craig Lord of Global News and The Associated Press.
