The world does not vote in the US presidential election, nor do jurors participate in the US judicial system. Despite this, Donald J. Trump was convicted All 34 felony charges A hush-money trial in a New York court on Thursday made clear once again how seriously what happens in the United States affects the rest of the world.
Many U.S. observers are struggling to answer the same questions Americans are asking: Can Trump still run for president? (Yes.) And if so, would a guilty verdict undermine support from his political base? (Unclear.)
Foreign observers have also begun to wonder whether Trump, an already volatile force, will become even less likely to abide by the normal rules of politics and diplomacy if he wins re-election in November.
Trump's supporters in anti-immigrant, right-wing nationalist circles abroad quickly came to his defense. Hungary's pro-Kremlin Prime Minister Viktor Orban called Trump “a man of honor” in an interview. postal And said the American people should make their own judgment in November.
Italy's Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League party, expressed “solidarity and full support” and called Trump a “victim of judicial harassment.”
“This verdict is a disgrace,” Nigel Farage, a Brexit supporter, Trump supporter and honorary chairman of Reform UK, a small right-wing party in the U.K., wrote on social media. “Trump will now win a landslide victory.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin did not immediately respond to the verdict, but he has used the situation to weaken U.S. influence more broadly. Putin last year called various lawsuits against Trump “political” and said he would “make the U.S. a country that is not ….”persecution” and said they exposed “the corruption of the American political system, which cannot even pretend to teach others democracy.”
His spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, reiterated that view on Friday in response to the verdict, saying it was clear to the world that U.S. authorities were trying to eliminate political opponents “by all possible legal and illegal means.”
The Manhattan jury's guilty verdict comes at a time when questions about U.S. involvement are at the heart of several global crises.
In Ukraine, the war effort against Russia has been hampered by months of delays by congressional Republicans in delivering U.S. military aid.
In Europe, leaders who rely on the United States for defense worry that relations with Washington could become strained again and that the United States might no longer support strengthening defenses against Russia.
In Asia, the Biden administration sees a growing threat from China and worries that it could invade Taiwan, while U.S. allies worry about the sanctity of defense treaties that have long underpinned the regional security order.
During the campaign, Trump said he would encourage Russia to attack any NATO member that did not pay enough for its defense and questioned whether the United States should defend South Korea, a treaty ally where the United States maintains a large military presence. consider Ohio Senator JD Vance, one of Washington's most vocal opponents of military aid to Ukraine and a possible running mate for Trump.
Foreign analysts worry that the unpredictability of Trump's favored currency could once again destabilize the global order.
Concerns about Trump's potential return to the White House are particularly acute in Germany, which was the target of Trump's ire for much of his first term and is home to more than 35,000 U.S. troops.
Andrea Römmele, vice president of the Hertie School, a graduate school of public policy in Berlin, said many Germans who followed Trump's verdict were relieved to see that even a former president is not above the law in the United States. But she said Germans are still very anxious about Trump's victory.
“I think everyone is prepared for the unthinkable,” she said.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose right-wing opponents at home accuse him of using the judiciary to settle political scores, praised Trump's conviction in New York as a “lesson from America” for Polish politicians.
“Whether the perpetrator is the president or a minister, the law will convict and punish,” Tusk said in a message posted on X. A veteran centrist, Tusk came to office in last October's election that ousted a nationalist government that had been close to Trump during and after his presidency.
Still, most foreign governments reacted cautiously on Friday, forced to watch every shift in American political sentiment.
“I don't want to comment on matters related to judicial proceedings in other countries,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said at a news conference in Tokyo on Friday.
In Britain, where a national election campaign is underway, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak declined to discuss the Trump case. His Labour opponent, former chief prosecutor Keir Starmer, said he respected the court's decision and called the situation unprecedented.
“Ultimately whether he is elected president will be a matter for the American people,” Starmer told BBC Radio Scotland. “Obviously, if we have the honour of serving them, we will work with whomever president they choose.”
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning declined to comment on the verdict, saying she hoped whoever is elected president would be “committed to developing healthy and stable Sino-US relations.”
The possibility of Trump's return to the White House has caused anxiety among America's Asian allies who rely on Washington for their defense.
In April, when Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida paid a state visit to Washington, President Biden called the relationship the world’s most important bilateral alliance. Biden has strengthened U.S. defense partnerships with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and other Asian countries as U.S. concerns grow about China’s expanding military influence.
By comparison, during his presidency, Trump demanded that Japan, which hosts more than 50,000 U.S. troops, pay $8 billion to maintain U.S. bases there. (That never happened.)
However, no matter who wins the US presidential election, the fundamental tension in the region’s geopolitics – the competition between the United States and China – will continue.
“Beijing has no illusions about Trump and Biden given their anti-China stance,” said Lau Siu-kai, a Hong Kong policy adviser to the Chinese government. “Beijing is ready for a more intense confrontation with the United States on technology, trade and Taiwan.”
Officials at the Chinese Embassy in the United States and consulates around the country are likely busy assessing how the ruling will affect the election, said Willy Lin, a Chinese politics analyst at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington.
“Most of Xi Jinping’s advisers now believe that a Trump presidency could have an adverse impact on China-U.S. relations,” Lam said of China’s top leader. “If Trump wins, given the special circumstances of his victory, he may take unpredictable actions to maintain his authority.”
There is a feeling in Asia that the region has been consistently ignored and underestimated by American presidents, especially as Biden’s attention is consumed by crises in Europe and the Middle East. This sentiment was also evident during Trump’s presidency, and for America’s partners in Asia, it was exacerbated by Trump’s affinity for regional strongmen.
Apart from occasionally expressing admiration for Mr. Putin and Kim Jong-un Trump invited to the White House a former army chief who staged a coup in Thailand and installed himself as prime minister. Trump won praise from former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who is now under investigation by the International Criminal Court for his deadly war on drugs.
The Philippines, now led by the son of longtime dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who died in exile in Hawaii, has moved the country away from China and back toward the United States.
At least when it comes to prosecuting former leaders, the rest of the world is far ahead of the United States. South Korea, which has turned jailing fallen leaders into a national movement, has had four former presidents convicted of corruption and abuse of power. Former French presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac were both convicted of corruption.
Former South African President Jacob Zuma was indicted on charges including money laundering. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was sentenced to years in prison for corruption after leading Brazil. His conviction was eventually overturned. He once again served as that country's president.
Reporting by Stephen Castle, Elisabetta Povoledo, Roger Cohen, Zixu Wang, Andrew Higgins and Camille Elemia, Choi Sang-hoon, Motoko Richie, Alexandra Stevenson, Huang Ruili and Samir Yasir.
